MO WTI 11.12.18
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MO WTI 11.12.18

Long Term Overview:

Economic Analysis

American oil production continues to grow, with the EIA reporting a record production of 11.3 million barrels per day in August. Latest numbers from the weekly report indicate that the U.S. is producing even more oil now, with the latest numbers signalling that by 2019, the U.S. could be producing over 12 million barrels per day of oil. Paired with a forecast of between 1 and 1.2 million barrels per day being lost to Iran Sanctions, WTI price may continue to fall in the near term, before picking up again later in the mid – long term.

Long Term Analysis

Due to the recent uncertainties in the oil market, this has led price to decrease. Price has broken below major monthly EMAs, however this commodity is in its monthly lower bullish tripwire area; an area of increased support. Because of these factors, WTI may reach as high as previous lows nearing the 83.00 area within the next financial quarter.

 

 

Decision Point: Close above Monthly 200EMA nearing the 62.50 area.

Long Term Trend: Long

Channel Range: 1655

Possible Bias: Long

Medium Term Analysis

Recent U.S. oil inventories have showed an increase in supply thus decreasing WTI price. Never the less, price is in an area of increased support inside the lower bullish tripwire area, as well as a large amount of separation apparent on the Weekly MacD Indicator. Because of these factors, price may reach previous weekly highs nearing the 75.25 area within the next couple of weeks.

 

 

Decision Point: Close above Weekly 200EMA nearing the 61.00 area.

Long Term Trend: Long

Channel Range: 1655

Possible Bias: Long